Vietnam's climate changes due to the coming El Nino
The appearance of El Nino phenomenon (forecast in late May, early June and lasting until early 2024) may affect weather and climate conditions in Vietnam.
“El Nino” is a word used to refer to the phenomenon of surface sea temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (characterised by Nino 3.4 area) higher than the average of many years (Sp. ) from 0.5 degrees Celsius or more, usually lasting for 8-12 months, with a frequency of about once every 3-4 years. El Nino events are typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, Africa, and Central Asia. At the same time, El Nino can also cause severe drought in Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia. The last time El Nino happened was in 2018 - 2019.
In Vietnam, many scientists and hydrometeorological experts have also warned that this summer will be hotter than recent years. Based on the data from 12 climate models from three world-renowned forecasting centers (GFS, ECMWF, CMC), the hottest month in Vietnam will be May, June and July. The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting forecasts that the El Nino phenomenon is likely to appear in late May and early June 2023 with a probability of about 70-80% and may last until the beginning of the year. 2024.
In El Nino years, the number of cold air waves affecting our country is less than usual. The number of cold fronts, typical of cold air waves, passing through Hanoi in the months of the year is only 70%. The end time of cold air activity in Vietnam is earlier than usual.
In El Nino conditions, the average monthly temperature is higher than normal. The difference in winter is more obvious than in summer and Southern areas are affected more than the North. Under the influence of El Nino phenomenon, especially strong El Nino waves can cause many records of the absolute highest temperature in many places.
In addition, El Nino conditions often cause a shortage of rainfall in most regions of the country, common from 25 to 50% (most prominently in the North Central region). Notably, a number of El Niño events gave records for the heaviest rainfall in 24 hours and the number of consecutive months without rain in some places, showing that El Nino increases the variability of rain in Vietnam. Similar to El Nino in 2009-2010 and 2018-2019, the average temperature in the areas is higher than the average. Rainfall in common areas will be lacking compared to the average of the average period, especially in the North and South regions. There is a risk that in the first months of 2024, water resources in the North, Central, Central Highlands and Mekong River regions are likely to be in short supply compared to the average state.
Source: the Internet