The severe changes in the weather this year is going to have severe impacts on the agriculture industry in Vietnam in 2023.
The risk of water shortage for agricultural production
Since the beginning of 2023, many provinces and cities across the country have suffered from water shortages for agricultural production. This situation is likely to continue, leading to The risk of water shortage for agricultural production for nearly 15,000 hectares as the flow is less than the average of many years. Additionally, large reservoirs and the river basin system in the Central, Central Highlands, and Southeast regions are forecasted to have a water shortage of 15 - 40% by the end of the dry season in 2023.
In March 2023, Bac Hung Hai irrigation system lacked water for 100ha of rice in Binh Giang district (Hai Duong province). The risk of drought and water shortage expands in Hung Yen province due to polluted water, not enough quality for irrigation, and lack of rainfall in February and March 2023. In the North Central region, from early March 2023, the low water source of Lam River has caused drought and water shortage for about 1,100ha of rice in Nghe An province. The Ban Ve hydropower reservoir must increase the discharge volume to supplement the flow and ensure the operation of irrigation works.
According to the National Center for Hydro-meteorological Forecasting, from April to September 2023, the total rainfall in the provinces and cities in the North will be 5-15 years lower than the annual average. From April to June 2023, the flow on rivers in the North region is 10 - 60% short of the average state, while in the Central and North Central Highlands it is likely to be 10 - 50% lower than the State average. From July to September 2023, river and stream flows in the Northern region continue to be short by 10 - 30% compared to the average, while in the Central and North Central Highlands, the prevalence is approximately and lower than the average level of 15 - 70%. This makes the risk of drought and water shortage likely to continue in many localities.
In the face of the risk of insufficient flow, the Irrigation Department said that in the North Central region, in the Summer-Autumn crop and the Summer of 2023, the peak time of the dry season, if the heat lasts for a long time, some areas are likely to experience drought and lack of water. In the South Central region, in the summer-autumn crop of 2023, there is a risk of drought, local water shortage, and saltwater intrusion in the period July-August 2023, with a total affected area of about 3,000 - 3,500 ha. , mainly in the provinces of Quang Nam (2,500 ha), Phu Yen (500 - 800 ha) and Ninh Thuan (100 - 200 ha). Meanwhile, in the Central Highlands, the water source is basically guaranteed to serve the production of the 2023 crop. However, in case the rainy season comes late, there is a risk of drought and water shortage for about 1,000 ha in the outer area to supply water for irrigation.
El Nino is coming back
It is forecasted that in 2023, the hot weather in the North and Central region is from May to August, of which the peak in the North is from June to July, in the Central region is from July. The heat this year comes early and tends to be more intense than in previous years. From July to September, ENSO will be in El Nino state, so the heat is likely to increase from about May to August, concentrating more in the North and Central regions.
In addition, as mentioned above, the problem of drought and water shortage, especially in the late 2023 early 2024 period, will be more severe due to the impact of El Nino, hence there is little rain and the rainy season is likely to end sooner, leading to the Severe water shortage, drought and saltwater intrusion are likely to occur. The risk of forest fires in the near future in the northern mountainous region and the central region will also increases.
Whenever happened before, El Nino has always left severe impacts on the agriculture industry in Vietnam. According to some calculations by the WB research team, Vietnam ranks 7th among the most disaster-prone countries in the world with more than 13,000 deaths and $6.4 billion worth of property damage over the past 2 decades. From 2014 - 2016, El Nino, drought and saltwater intrusion caused an estimated $3.6 million in damage to the agriculture, fishery, and aquaculture industries. Specifically, domestic fish production by the end of March 2016 reached about 38,000 tons (down 2.6% over the same period).
Source: the Internet